Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower a

[Sunsettommy]

Climate Etc.

Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation

Posted on October 20, 2022 by curryja

by Javier Vinós

Excerpt:

A recent paper by Svetlana Veretenenko provides important support for the effect of solar activity on the lower atmospheric circulation through its effect on the polar vortex. Veretenenko’s paper is an important step in demonstrating the solar effect on global atmospheric circulation, an important part of the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis.

1. Introduction

The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis, proposed by this author in his book “Climate of the Past, Present and Future” (Vinós 2022), is based on evidence that climate change is primarily the result of changes in poleward energy transport, and that solar variability is an important modulator of this transport. The hypothesis addresses two important issues: How climate changes naturally on the multi-decadal to the millennial time scale, even in the absence of changes in the greenhouse effect; and how changes in solar activity can profoundly affect climate despite their small energy changes. One conclusion of the hypothesis is that the Modern Solar Maximum of 1935-2005 contributed to 20th-century global warming, implying a significant reduction in climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide.

LINK

[Billy_Bob Systems Administration]

Climate Etc.

Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation

Posted on October 20, 2022 by curryja

by Javier Vinós

Excerpt:

A recent paper by Svetlana Veretenenko provides important support for the effect of solar activity on the lower atmospheric circulation through its effect on the polar vortex. Veretenenko’s paper is an important step in demonstrating the solar effect on global atmospheric circulation, an important part of the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis.

1. Introduction

The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis, proposed by this author in his book “Climate of the Past, Present and Future” (Vinós 2022), is based on evidence that climate change is primarily the result of changes in poleward energy transport, and that solar variability is an important modulator of this transport. The hypothesis addresses two important issues: How climate changes naturally on the multi-decadal to the millennial time scale, even in the absence of changes in the greenhouse effect; and how changes in solar activity can profoundly affect climate despite their small energy changes. One conclusion of the hypothesis is that the Modern Solar Maximum of 1935-2005 contributed to 20th-century global warming, implying a significant reduction in climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide.

LINK

LOL....

Jo used the paradoxical presentation model....  AWESOME!!!!!!   I have no idea where that started...  Wink, Wink, Wink...   Interlocking circulations.  Why the poles are warm at the surface but colder at altitude...z

I guess it's time for me to repost a thread, in layman's terms, for the Paradoxical Presentations of Earths Systems I did in 2017.

[Billy_Bob Systems Administration]

Now you have piqued my interest...  This paper goes into great detail of the magnetic fields and how they are coupled with our cyclical flows. And Norm is his usual self... LOL

[Billy_Bob Systems Administration]

Judith always gets a robust debate by competing interests. 

I think Javier hit the nail on the head with this one..

"For the time being climate change is only considered in radiative terms, not only by the entire IPCC orthodoxy, but also by most of the scientific skeptic community. That climate can change due to dynamical changes in the ocean-atmosphere coupled circulation is only being considered by a few that have taught themselves outside the dogma, like me, and are capable to see it in the evidence."

Javier is looking at the bigger picture and the globe as a whole system.


A wonderful example of what Feynman describes in the difference between Knowledge and Understanding.

[Sunsettommy]

Watts Up With That?

Meridional Transport, the most fundamental climate variable

Andy May 10/25/2022

Excerpt:

“The atmospheric heat transport on Earth from the Equator to the poles is largely carried out by the mid-latitude storms. However, there is no satisfactory theory to describe this fundamental feature of the Earth’s climate.”

(Barry, Craig, & Thuburn, 2002)
This is the transcript of the talk I gave in Tom Nelson’s podcast interview here.

After Leon Barry and his colleagues write the above statement in their Nature article, they write that the middle latitudes are a zone of strong temperature gradients and these gradients generate storms that can be severe. Their paper proposes that the severity of the storms is proportional to the temperature gradient, such that the smaller the temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles, the fewer severe storms are needed to accomplish the task of transferring excess tropical energy (or heat) to the poles. Keep this concept in mind as I describe meridional (north-south) energy transport.

Much of this talk is based on Javier Vinós’ new book Climate of the Past, Present, and Future, A Scientific Debate, 2nd Edition, Chapter 10. Figure 1, from the book, shows the global average temperature over one average year.

LINK to a long science filled post

[Billy_Bob Systems Administration]

Watts Up With That?

Meridional Transport, the most fundamental climate variable

Andy May  10/25/2022

Excerpt:

“The atmospheric heat transport on Earth from the Equator to the poles is largely carried out by the mid-latitude storms. However, there is no satisfactory theory to describe this fundamental feature of the Earth’s climate.”

(Barry, Craig, & Thuburn, 2002)
This is the transcript of the talk I gave in Tom Nelson’s podcast interview here.

After Leon Barry and his colleagues write the above statement in their Nature article, they write that the middle latitudes are a zone of strong temperature gradients and these gradients generate storms that can be severe. Their paper proposes that the severity of the storms is proportional to the temperature gradient, such that the smaller the temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles, the fewer severe storms are needed to accomplish the task of transferring excess tropical energy (or heat) to the poles. Keep this concept in mind as I describe meridional (north-south) energy transport.

Much of this talk is based on Javier Vinós’ new book Climate of the Past, Present, and Future, A Scientific Debate, 2nd Edition, Chapter 10. Figure 1, from the book, shows the global average temperature over one average year.

LINK to a long science filled post

Javier has really got the dander up..

The three factors responsible for Earth’s thermal stability then are the greenhouse effect, clouds, and meridional transport. Modern climatology ignores the last two and focuses exclusively on the first, by developing the CO2 “control knob” climate hypothesis. The effect of clouds and their variability on climate change is still largely unknown. According the IPCC AR6 report (on page 979) cloud feedback to surface warming could be positive or negative and it is the largest source of uncertainty in the effect of greenhouse gases on the climate.

This is why the alarmists are up in arms.  Javier points out the two of three items keeping the earth in thermal balance are ignored by most scientists.